Still cheap money

The interest rates - are they the key to today's financial markets? If you can understand the forces behind them you should be in a very good position to predict the direction of the stock markets.



The striking point viewing the interest rates development is - they are permanently so low. Yes, beside an uptick in the summer 2006, the long-term bonds yield remains quite stable, low, moderate...



In the BusinessWeek.com we read:

When the rate on the 10-year Treasury bond plunged from 6.5% in early 2000 to an average of 4% or so in 2003, the explanations were easy: tech bust, recession, weak capital spending, low inflation, steep rate cuts by central banks around the world. The low rates seemed perfectly normal—and sure to reverse on a dime when conditions changed.



Since then, plenty has changed. The Fed has hiked short-term rates by more than four percentage points. The global economy grew by 5.1% in 2006, the second-strongest performance in 25 years. Europe and Japan have recovered. Even tech spending seems to be on the rise, judging from Cisco Systems Inc.'s (CSCO ) strong earnings report on Feb. 6. And yetand yet!—10-year Treasury rates have risen only three-quarters of a percentage point. Real rates, which adjust for inflation, have barely budged.



It isn't only a U.S. phenomenon. Ten-year euro bonds are yielding around 4% today, no higher than in 2003, despite much faster growth in the region. Real rates in the euro zone are up only a bit.

BusinessWeek.com, It's A Low, Low, Low, Low-Rate World