A Bourse Diary

Thoughts on stocks, speculation and ... life

Monday, February 19, 2007

Bearish toughts

My sentiment is bearish. The market is much higher than when I first, incorrectly as it turned out, became bearish. The defensive action taken last summer was far from extreme, and I am less defensive than I was a few months ago. Technically speaking we are closer to the next correction than we were six months ago.

This is Roger Nusbaum at SeekingAlpha: Bearish and Long.

I really gladly hear bearish thoughts. My perception is, more bloggers (in particular) are bearish. But they are forced to follow the trend. Roger speaks of his equity exposure to have risen - but we don't know how high it was. And, yes, surely it has risen - most probably due to the strong market, not new investments.

The correction - much anticipated - will come. I also suggest that we are near a short turn "relief". But "a bearish sentiment" means to me to expect a mid term market top followed by an extended bear market or pronounced weak period in stocks. And I do not see this coming: correction - yes, please, but this is not the top of this bull run.

In my humble opinion, of course.


At 6:50 PM, Blogger Roger Nusbaum said...

I bought NKE and MO for most clients a short while back after the new year. The NKE trade was disclosed weeks ago and I am not positive if the MO purchase was disclosed or not.

Bad supposition on your part.

At 2:50 PM, Blogger Life Settlement Investing said...

Your bearish thoughts and that of everybody are what got me doing some searching a while back for something better and I wonder what your thoguhts are on investing in Life Settlement insurance policies. I have to admit that I'm vested and actively marketing them now but primarily because I can't find anything that beats them if done right, your thoughts?...


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Disclaimer: All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.